Pagasa foresees increased temperature and rainfall as climate change indicator
by SC Aro
La Trinidad, Benguet (6 February) -- PAGASA foresees a scenario of increased temperature and rainfall as manifestations of climate change by 2020 and 2050 based on the results of their study.
Utilizing the PRECIS model, PAGASA Weather Scientist Dr. Flaviana D. Hilaro presented the results of the study during the forging of Memorandum of Understanding on the Enhanced Climate Change Adaptation Capacity of Communities in Contiguous Fragile Ecosystems in the Cordilleras held at the Benguet State University. The program with Ifugao and Benguet as demonstration sites is an output of a joint program of the United Nations, Spain and the Philippines on climate change adaptation.
PRECIS model was developed to help generate high-resolution climate change information for as many regions of the world as possible. It is freely available to groups of developing countries in order that they may develop climate change scenario.
Hilario said the study recorded the events for a 30 year period from 1971 to 2000 nationwide measuring the changes in temperature and the variation of the amount of rainfall. Results of the study showed that seasonal mean temperature in the country are expected to rise by about 0.9°Centigrade to 1.1°C for 2020 and 1.7°C to 2.4°C by 2050.
Projection of seasonal temporal rainfall variation is largest from 35% to 45% during the months of March to August but lesser from 5% to 25% from September to February.
The highest increase in rainfall during southwest monsoon season during the months of June-July-August is likely in Region 01 (44 %), CAR (29%), Region 03 (34%), Region 04 (24%), and Region 05 (24%) in 2050.
The model indicated that climate change will probably lead to an active southwest monsoon in Luzon and Visayas and may increase as years go by.
Hilario said the study revealed that the drier season of March-April-May will become drier, while the wetter season of June to November becomes wetter.
In Mindanao, it is foreseen that there will be a reduction in seasonal rainfall from March to November by 2050.
Hilario said they plan to use around four models more in determining climate change scenarios to validate their findings and to generate accurate results. (PIA-Benguet) [top]