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PIA Press Release
2009/06/15

PAGASA predicts 10 tropical cyclones to enter Philippines in next 3 months

Tugeuagarao City (15 June) -- "Seven (7) to ten (10) tropical cyclones are likely to develop and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the next 3 months," said Engr. Leo Bunyag, Weather Services Chief of Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Region 2, in his weather outlook report to the Regional Disaster Coordinating Council (RDDC) meeting held at the Police Regional Office 2.

Bunyag reported that for this month of June, most dynamical models are predicted for possible occurrence of El Niņo, however, the southwest monsoon and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) will likely influence the weather of the month, with a possibility of two tropical cyclones expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

For the month of July and September, Bunyag said "this period is the peak of the southwest monsoon "Habagat" season and a tropical cyclone is likewise at its maximum. The July - August months are likely characterized by heavy rains and strong winds and thunderstorms."

He further explained that probable axis of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) runs across the country during July and reaches the northernmost part of the Philippines during August, exposing the country to enhanced rainfall that may cause flood and landslides in some affected areas that may also develop into tropical cyclones.

During these periods, Bunyag said near normal rainfall conditions is likely to be experienced in most parts of the country with some below normal rainfall expected over the Ilocos Norte area. For the month of August above normal to near normal rainfall condition is expected to be experienced over Luzon and the rest of the country.

"Probability of flooding, flash flood and landslides are expected over Luzon during this period. The rest of the country will likely receive near normal rainfall values," Bunyag added.

He also reported that initial impact of the warming trend in the basin wide Pacific Ocean is below normal rainfall condition to be experienced in most parts of Cagayan Valley and the Visayas area, southern part of Bicol region including Virac, northern Palawan, and most areas of Agusan province during the month of September. (Ver/PIA Cagayan) [top]

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